11:00 - 13:15
Friday-Panel
Chair/s:
Alex Braithwaite
Discussant/s:
Tolga Sinmazdemir
Meeting room A

Shusuke Ioku
Resolved or belligerent: crisis signaling without inherent assurances

Alex Braithwaite, Michael Frith, Miranda Simon, Tiffany S. Chu, Faten Ghosn
Pushed and pulled: Refugee preferences regarding resettlement

Alon Yakter, Liran Harsgor
Long-term Change in Conflict Attitudes: A Dynamic Approach

Lorenzo Crippa, Laura Saavedra-Lux
Oiling the Guns: How FDI in Oil and Gas Extraction Affects Conflict Dynamics

QingQian He, YaQian He
Water conflict: An Empirical Test for Neo-Malthusian View with Remotely-Sensed Data
Long-term Change in Conflict Attitudes: A Dynamic Approach
Alon Yakter 1, Liran Harsgor 2
1 Tel Aviv University
2 University of Haifa

How do real-world events in conflicts affect public attitudes about their resolution? A large and growing literature has examined the causes and mechanisms that shape public opinion in conflicts, yet it has mostly focused on short-term or static relationships, leaving open questions about their temporal dynamics. Addressing this gap, we use a unique dataset of monthly surveys conducted in Israel over two decades (2001-2020) to analyze the dynamic influence that different event types have had on aggregate attitudes among Israeli Jews. While we corroborate past findings about the negative influence of violence on popular support and hope for a resolution, we also find that these effects are short-lived and do not leave a lasting mark on public attitudes. By contrast, non-violent events that send negative signals about the possibility of peace, such as failed negotiations and popular support for extremists on the other side, exert a deeper and lengthier negative influence on the long-term trajectory of public opinion. These patterns are consistent with two parallel mechanisms: an immediate but short-lived emotional response to palpable threats and slower but longer-lasting information updating. These findings shed new light on the dynamic nature of public attitudes in conflicts and underscore the importance of non-violent signals in advancing their resolution.