17:45 - 20:00
Thursday-Panel
Chair/s:
Dominik Duell
Discussant/s:
Dominik Duell
Meeting Room C

Ingo Rohlfing
The effect of failed coalition negotiations on trust in parties: Germany after the federal election of 2017

Sebastian Juhl, Roni Lehrer, Pirmin Stöckle
Assessing the relative influence of party unity on vote choice: Evidence from a conjoint experiment

Mathias Poertner
Building Parties Top-Down and Bottom-up: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Mexico

Enrique Hernández, Eva Anduiza, Carol Galais
Should We Worry About Experiments in Online (Panel) Surveys?
Assessing the relative influence of party unity on vote choice: Evidence from a conjoint experiment
Sebastian Juhl, Roni Lehrer, Pirmin Stöckle
University of Mannheim

Observational studies and anecdotal evidence suggest that internal conflict hampers a party's electoral performance. Yet, party unity manifests in multiple ways and the relative importance of acting united as compared to other factors such as ideology for vote choice remains unknown. In this study, we present novel experimental evidence of the suggested effect of party unity on the vote. By implementing a conjoint design in a probability-based survey of the German population, we causally identify direct effects of several distinct aspects of party unity on vote intention. Besides establishing a causal relationship, our design allows us to evaluate the importance of party unity as compared to other relevant factors such as ideological distance and various candidate characteristics. Our individual-level analysis confirms the importance of a cohesive image on electoral support. We also show that, while ideological considerations are by far the dominating factor in determining vote choice, internal conflict in parliament and during party congresses noticeably deter voters. Viewed from a different angle, appearing united can compensate for substantive policy distances between parties and voters. These findings have important implications for the literature on spatial models of voting and crucially expand our understanding of the effects of (intra-)party politics on vote choice.