15:30 - 17:45
Thursday-Panel
Chair/s:
Jan Stuckatz
Discussant/s:
Silvana Tarlea
Meeting Room A

Tanja Schweinberger
Mass public opinions towards trade balances: Mercantilism 2.0

Sofia Vasilopoulou, Dan Keith, Liisa Talving
Emerging divisions on trade in post-Brexit UK

Lee Jieun, Jan Stuckatz
Comparing Mobilization and Access: USMCA Lobbying in the U.S. and Canada

Alex Honeker
Populist Right Success and Mainstream Party Adaptation: The Case of Free Trade
Mass public opinions towards trade balances: Mercantilism 2.0
Tanja Schweinberger
University of Geneva

The deterioration of international trade cooperation is ongoing. Especially in the context of the trade war between the U.S. and China, the bilateral trade imbalance has been vociferously problematised. An important, however understudied, question arises: How do citizens of the mass public evaluate their country’s trade balance? For many contemporary economists, the vilification of trade balances is puzzling. The conventional wisdom therefore cannot explain the salience of trade imbalances. Harking back at mercantilist propositions, current events suggest that some citizens care about deficits and with what country the imbalance is. I seek to gain a better understanding of such dynamics by conducting representative survey experiments in the P.R. of China and the U.S. (n=4000). I present citizens with real information about their country’s overall trade balance as well as with respect to specific countries. Preliminary evidence from pilot studies support mercantilist expectations as citizens from both countries view trade deficits more negatively than surpluses. In addition, particularly deficits with political competitors are rejected. My findings thus highlight why the trade imbalance is a key point of contention in U.S.-Sino relations and that aspects of mercantilist ideas prevail after more than half a millennium.