13:15 - 15:30
Thursday-Panel
Chair/s:
Álvaro Canalejo-Molero
Discussant/s:
Jane Green
Meeting Room B

Marie-Lou Sohnius, Arndt Leininger, Thorsten Faas, Sigrid Roßteutscher, Armin Schäfer
Temporary Disenfranchisement: Negative Side-Effects of Lowering the Voting Age

Álvaro Canalejo-Molero
Does new party entry increase electoral turnout? Quasi-experimental evidence from the 2015 local Spanish elections

Alexander Held
The Electoral Consequences of Compulsory Voting: New Evidence from a Natural Experiment

Robert Liñeira, Pedro Riera
Why does proportional representation benefit left-wing parties?
The Electoral Consequences of Compulsory Voting: New Evidence from a Natural Experiment
Alexander Held
Trinity College Dublin

Several quasi-experimental studies find evidence that higher voter turnout benefits left-wing parties, suggesting that an institutional fix like the introduction of compulsory voting could have serious political consequences. This study builds on, and moves beyond, this traditional class voting approach by presenting an alternative minimal effects view. It argues that instead of shifting the political power towards the left, compulsory voting helps mainstream parties - both on the left and on the right - to consolidate their power by weakening independent and minor party candidates. To test this theory, my study reanalyzes a critical case - Australia in the early 20th century - frequently cited as a strong demonstration of a clear positive effect of compulsory voting on the electoral success of left-wing parties. It leverages the fact that the introduction of compulsory voting laws at different points in time for state and Commonwealth elections in Australia represents an arguably exogenous shock to voter turnout. It improves on previous quasi-experimental research by using a unique dataset of more fine-grained electoral district election data in combination with a difference-in-differences design to provide a more direct empirical test of the assumed relationship. Findings from this analysis are broadly consistent with the minimal effects view and provide only limited support for the traditional class voting approach. This study sheds new light on the political consequences of an electoral reform that has gained increased traction among both academics and practitioners and represents an important corrective to the dominant class voting approach.