11:00 - 13:15
Thursday-Panel
Chair/s:
Resul Umit
Discussant/s:
Diana Burlacu
Meeting Room F

Resul Umit
Disconfirmed Winning Expectations Decrease Voter Satisfaction with Democracy

Andreas Goldberg, Carolina Plescia
What factors influence perceptions of a fair election and with what consequences?

David Willumsen, Pedro Riera
The political geography of satisfaction with democracy

Simon Otjes, David Willumsen Djessie Ligthart
Complete Conquerors. Government Alternation and Satisfaction with Democracy
Disconfirmed Winning Expectations Decrease Voter Satisfaction with Democracy
Resul Umit
University of Oslo

Every vote creates winners and losers, opening a satisfaction gap between the two. At a time when concerns are high for democracy, we do not know what exactly leaves substantial proportions of voters—losers—dissatisfied with the system. This paper will provide causal evidence for the cognitive dissonance theory, which points at disconfirmed winning expectations.

With a difference-in-differences design around the Brexit referendum, it finds that the result caused an additional 3% decrease in the losers’ satisfaction if they were expecting to win the vote. The gap grows with the strength of expectations, and the losers to whom the result came as a complete surprise experienced almost a three times larger decrease in satisfaction, compared to the losers who were sure they would lose. If winning expectations affect how dissatisfied losers become after votes, then those who set expectations about voting outcomes have responsibilities for the stability of democracy.