How do voters respond to elite polarization? Mass and party polarization on immigration in Europe
P14-3
Presented by: Alina Vranceanu
Much of the existing research on public attitudes toward immigration focuses on their drivers and political consequences. However, we know less about mass polarization on this issue and the extent to which it is influenced by party system polarization, a factor shown in previous research to affect public opinion on a variety of issues. While existing research on elite influences on voters posits partisan cue-taking as a key mechanism, the impact on non-partisans is less clear-cut. This paper examines how partisans and non-partisans respond to elite polarization on immigration in European countries. It addresses this question by employing time-series cross-section data analyses covering seventeen European countries between 2002 and 2019 (relying on data from the European Social Survey for individual attitudes to immigration, and the Comparative Manifesto Project for party positions on immigration), coupled with additional analyses using panel data (relying on data from the British Election Study Internet Panel) as well as an instrumental variable approach. Preliminary results suggest that the impact of elite polarization on mass polarization is moderated by partisanship and the election context (i.e. whether the election features the electoral breakthrough of a radical right anti-immigration party).