15:00 - 16:40
P14
Room:
Room: Club B
Panel Session 14
Ivo Bantel, Markus Kollberg - Uncovering the Relationship between Mass and Elite-Level Polarization in European Multi-Party Systems. Evidence from Germany.
Sara Hobolt, James Tilley - Affective Polarization in a Social Setting
Hanna Bäck - Explaining affective polarization – The role of party messages
Markus Wagner - Affective Polarization and Coalition Signals
Noam Gidron, Lior Sheffer - The Cumulative Impact of Elections on Affective Polarization - Evidence From a Panel Study of Four Elections in Israel
Uncovering the Relationship between Mass and Elite-Level Polarization in European Multi-Party Systems. Evidence from Germany.
P14-1
Presented by: Ivo Bantel, Markus Kollberg
Ivo Bantel 1Markus Kollberg 2
1 Center for Comparative and International Studies, University of Zurich
2 University College London
Affective polarization among voters and elites—the disliking of political opponents—are of increasing concern in many multi-party democracies. However, previous research considered them in isolation. In this paper, we ask: How does emotionally loaded elite-level discourse about partisan competitors affect mass-level affective polarization? We argue that elite-level messaging and AP is a main driver of mass-level AP and that partisan voters rely upon elite-cues to make sense of partisan competition. When elites then start attacking political competitors with emotively loaded language, this leads to more affective polarization in the public. To test this argument, we develop a novel measure of elite-level polarization in parliamentary debates of the German Bundestag using dependency-parsing and embedding-enhanced dictionaries. We combine this measure with longitudinal public opinion data to disentangle the relationship between parliamentary discourse and partisan voters‘ opinions. Preliminary results suggest that elite-level hostility and partisan polarization are indeed correlated but the direction of causality is so far unclear. The connection is particularly pronounced for the dislike of the radical right challenger party. This study highlights one major driver of mass-level AP and has implications for the study of affective polarization and party competition in Europe.