13:10 - 14:50
P13
Room:
Room: Meeting Room 2.3
Panel Session 13
Dylan Potts - The Irish Potato Famine and Desertion in the US Civil War
Vasily Korovkin - Conflict and Inter-Group Trade: Evidence from the 2014 Russia-Ukraine Crisis
Jaakko Meriläinen - The Long-Run Political Legacy of a Civil War: Finland over More Than a Hundred Years
Conflict and Inter-Group Trade: Evidence from the 2014 Russia-Ukraine Crisis
P13-1
Presented by: Vasily Korovkin
Vasily Korovkin 1, Alexey Makarin 2
1 CERGE-EI
2 Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Does armed conflict reduce trade, even in noncombat areas, through the destruction of inter-group social capital? We analyze Ukrainian trade transactions before and after the 2014 Russia-Ukraine conflict. In a difference-in-differences framework, we find that Ukrainian firms from districts with fewer ethnic Russians experienced a deeper decline in trade with Russia. This decline is economically significant, persistent, and can be explained by erosion of inter-group trust. Affected Ukrainian firms suffered a decrease in performance and diverted trade to other countries. Our results suggest that, through social effects, conflict can be economically damaging, even away from combat areas.