Risky Decisions? Conceptualizing far-right voting in terms of uncertainty management
P12-2
Presented by: Monika Mühlböck
Electoral support for radical right candidates and parties is growing, albeit consequences of voting for these political forces proposing a radical change of the status quo are difficult to predict. In this paper, we explore whether it is possible to explain this behavior using economic theories of decision-making under uncertainty. We offer a set of potential explanations why and under which conditions voters may prefer this seemingly riskier political alternative to the safer choice, and test these explanations using data from Germany and Austria. Our empirical analysis offers support for a negative direct effect of risk aversion on far-right voting, and a positive indirect effect of risk aversion on far-right voting (through conservative attitudes). Moreover, we find that the perception of future economic losses compared to the status quo increases far-right voting. These results suggest that theories of decision-making under uncertainty are particularly relevant to explain far-right voting.