Certainty, Risk, Ambiguity. Re-Assessing Spatial Theory
P12-1
Presented by: Guido Tiemann
Spatial models of vote choice devise actors to be risk-averse. Voters are supposed to be repelled by unclarity about political platforms and/ or by uncertainty about the ideological or programmatic positions of candidates and parties. This analysis builds upon a series of survey experiments so as to explore vote choice under certainty, risk, and ambiguity. Our findings reveal that risky alternatives, when electoral platforms are unclear, but potential outcomes and their respective probabilities are common knowledge, neither repel nor attract voters. In contrast, voters are driven away by uncertainty, when both outcomes and the probabilities of potential outcomes are unknown. Ultimately, we consider both experimental evidence and observational data from a voter survey to concomitantly address the internal and external validity of our research. In this paper, we present a series of survey experiments that focus on voter uncertainty about spatial party positions. In turn, we link experimental findings with observational evidence on German Bundestag elections. This enables us to apply internal consistency and validity derived within an experimental setting to a real-world electoral scenario so as to address both internal and external validity.