Surfing the COVID Waves? A Comparative Study on the Determinants of Election Postponement
P12-2
Presented by: Seonghui Lee
Since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, there were more than 150 countries and territories that had had elections scheduled, and half of these scheduled elections had to be postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. The scheduled elections include more than 100 national- and regional-level elections, and about 50 national-level elections and referendums. The other side of the coin is, however, that half of the scheduled elections could have been held as planned. This paper aims to examine why some elections are postponed while others are held as scheduled. This study will test a set of hypotheses on the determinants of election postponement in the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic and provide systematic analyses of comprehensive cross-national data, incorporating a wide set of data not only concerning the COVID-related factors, but also the economic and political contexts and institutional characteristics. The findings will contribute to the literature on the impact of crises and disasters on democratic processes by characterizing the underlying drivers of election postponement in the era of the pandemic. The study’s findings will also contribute to our understanding of the management of democracy under crises and the predictability of the fate of (different types of) elections in the prolonged period of the pandemic.