Natural Disasters and Green Party Support
P12-1
Presented by: Sascha Riaz
A growing literature shows that exposure to extreme weather events induces pro-environment attitudes. We examine the political effects of a severe flood that occurred shortly before the 2021 German federal election. Drawing on more than 500,000 survey responses and a panel of electoral returns, we assess how flood exposure affected (i) the issue salience of climate change, (ii) self-reported Green Party support, and (iii) Green Party voting in federal elections. The flood did not have a major impact on either of these three outcomes. Even in areas that suffered catastrophic destruction, the Green Party only saw small electoral gains. To explain this, we discuss two mechanisms: first, disaster exposure may not change preferences when climate change denial is rare, and the majority of voters already view climate change as a serious issue. Second, severe disasters could induce risk aversion among constituents and therefore decrease the propensity to vote for challenger parties. Our results suggest that the increasing frequency of natural disasters may not translate into political support for climate change policies.