11:20 - 13:00
P12
Room:
Room: Meeting Room 2.3
Panel Session 12
Álvaro Canalejo-Molero - Does parliamentary entry increase satisfaction with democracy? Comparative evidence from a three-fold study
Jacob Gunderson - Choices without Difference? The Role of Issue Divergence in Voters’ Perceptions of Their Party System and its Implications
Ida Hjermitslev - Pseudo-opposition and quasi-majorities: Accountability under minority government
Nanna Schönhage - The Politics of Distributing Blame and Credit: Evidence from a Survey Experiment with Norwegian Local Politicians
Does parliamentary entry increase satisfaction with democracy? Comparative evidence from a three-fold study
P12-1
Presented by: Álvaro Canalejo-Molero
Álvaro Canalejo-Molero
European University Institute
While extensive evidence confirms that winning an election increases satisfaction with democracy (SWD), the evidence on the effect of entering parliament is scarce. This is surprising given the increasing impact of new parties in Western democracies. Not only are they more likely to irrupt parliament than ever before, but their voters also display lower levels of SWD and other indicators of democratic support. Do they become more supportive after their party breakthrough? This paper provides three complementary studies to answer this question. The first one leverages the quasi-as-random nature of seat assignment around legally fixed electoral thresholds to identify the effect of parliamentary entry on SWD. It exploits post-electoral survey data from the cumulative files of the CSES with administrative electoral records within a regression-discontinuity approach (RDD). The second study uses pre- and post-electoral waves from six European panels to compare changes in SWD among voters of new parties entering parliament barely above the threshold with those gaining a sizeable number of seats. While voters of minor new parties become more satisfied after the election, voters of major new parties do not. The third study exploits extensive panel data (n>8000) for an in-depth analysis of AfD voters during the 2017 German Federal election to provide insights into this seeming puzzle. This paper contributes to the extensive literature on the winner-loser gap in SWD. It also adds to the growing literature on party entry effects. Most importantly, it provides original insights on why party-system change might not foster democratic support.