Environmental protests and political behaviour: Evidence from Fridays for Future
P11-5
Presented by: António Valentim
Do political protests influence citizens’ behaviour? While most research focuses on their effects on electoral and policy outcomes, political protests often aim at raising voters’ awareness for specific issues or topics. Environmental protests are a particularly interesting case – not only has the environmental cause always been strongly anchored in protests, but these protests also aim at sensitize citizens to change their behaviour in a number of ways. Importantly, our knowledge on the extent to which these efforts are effective is minimal. In a time when it is often argued that to achieve climate targets there needs to be a fundamental shift in consumer and behavioural habits, this gap is particularly relevant. This paper studies the extent to which these protests are successful by testing their effect on a number of important outcomes: voting behaviour, environmental-friendly behaviour - such as bike-usage - and environmental attitudes. Specifically, I collect a novel dataset on Fridays for Future protests in Germany, as well as on these different outcomes. I combine geospatial data with multiple data sources and conduct difference-in-differences estimations models to find that environmental protests have a positive effect on voting behaviour and that repeated exposure increases the effectiveness of protests. Additional analyses using data from panel surveys and online petition signatures further support the argument, and a comparative analysis with multiple Western European democracies tests its generalizability. Overall, this study’s findings are relevant to understand the consequences of political protest, as well as the politics of the environment more broadly.