09:30 - 11:10
P11
Room:
Room: South Hall 2A
Panel Session 11
Lukas Antoine - Costs, inconvenience, or civil rights? Investigating determinants of public support for surveillance
Emily Farris - Extreme localism: understanding gun attitudes in the United States through local law enforcement
Keith Smith - QAnon and The 2020 Election was Stolen: Item List Experimental Estimation of Politically Instrumental Conspiracy Theories Prevalence
Vlastimil Havlik, Peter Spáč - Populism, elite cues and coal power plants: Public attitudes to fossil fuels reduction in Central Europe
QAnon and The 2020 Election was Stolen: Item List Experimental Estimation of Politically Instrumental Conspiracy Theories Prevalence
P11-3
Presented by: Keith Smith
Keith Smith 1, Adam Mayer 2, Julia Bognar 3
1 ETH Zurich
2 Michigan State University
3 University of Toronto
Prominent conspiracy beliefs, such as QAnon or 2020 Presidential Election beliefs, comprise a unique form of conspiracy theories that are often explicitly partisan, "politically instrumental conspiracy theories" (PICTS). These theories can spread rapidly, quickly becoming consensus beliefs within partisan in-groups. But PICTs are not necessarily deeply held, rather serving immediate instrumental partisan needs. We use novel survey list experiments to estimate the prevalence of QAnon and 2020 Presidential Election conspiracy theories in the United States. We find that standard survey techniques likely overestimate the prevalence of PICTs by a factor of ~2. Adherence to PICTs is driven by right-wing media consumption (QAnon), and partisanship (2020 Presidential Election). Over-reporting of PICTs is most common among those with conspiratorial ideation. While the prevalence of PICTs is commonly over-estimated and the beliefs may be ephemeral, they can serve an instrumental role motivating the contemporary American electorate.