The share of women in municipality councils increases more with time than with gender quota. Evidence from quasi-experiments in Poland
P11-1
Presented by: Michal Gulczynski
Our study exploits a series of quasi-experiments to estimate the causal impact of electoral rules, gender quota in particular, on the representation of women in local legislative bodies. In five municipality elections in Poland, in the years 2002-2018, the arbitrary threshold of 20000 inhabitants divided municipalities into different electoral rules. This allows to apply the sharp Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD).
In 2018, the gender quota of 35% was applied for the first time in the municipalities above the threshold. We do not find sufficiently robust evidence of any effect of gender quota on the number of elected women, age nor education of councillors, despite the strong positive effect of gender quota on the number of female candidates and the share of votes received by women.
In contrast, some evidence suggests a backlash effect against female candidates running for mayors in the municipalities covered by the gender quota. Before the EPSA conference, this result will be compared with the simultaneously held elections to the legislatures of higher-level local administration (county and province), for which the data is currently being collected.
Other features of the electoral system – the number of seats in the council, size of electoral districts, multiple non-transferable vote, first-past-the-post and proportional system – do not seem to have any statistically significant effect on those outcomes. Instead, the number of women in the municipality councils grows gradually with time, irrespectively of the changes in electoral rules.
The paper may also fit the tracks "Political Institutions" and "Behaviour and Opinion."
In 2018, the gender quota of 35% was applied for the first time in the municipalities above the threshold. We do not find sufficiently robust evidence of any effect of gender quota on the number of elected women, age nor education of councillors, despite the strong positive effect of gender quota on the number of female candidates and the share of votes received by women.
In contrast, some evidence suggests a backlash effect against female candidates running for mayors in the municipalities covered by the gender quota. Before the EPSA conference, this result will be compared with the simultaneously held elections to the legislatures of higher-level local administration (county and province), for which the data is currently being collected.
Other features of the electoral system – the number of seats in the council, size of electoral districts, multiple non-transferable vote, first-past-the-post and proportional system – do not seem to have any statistically significant effect on those outcomes. Instead, the number of women in the municipality councils grows gradually with time, irrespectively of the changes in electoral rules.
The paper may also fit the tracks "Political Institutions" and "Behaviour and Opinion."