15:00 - 16:40
P9
Room:
Room: North Hall
Panel Session 9
Thomas Plümper, Eric Neumayer - Does ‘Data Fudging’ Explain the Autocratic Advantage? Evidence from the Gap between Official Covid-19 Mortality and Excess Mortality
Carl Henrik Knutsen, Palina Kolvani - Fighting the Disease or Manipulating the data? Democracy, State Capacity, and the Covid-19 Pandemic
Amir Freund, Yael Shomer - National Leaders’ Gender effect on European Countries Performance during the COVID-19 Crisis
Jonas Schmid, Jacob Nyrup - Crises for old men: How disasters, pandemics, and recessions alter government composition.
Sandra León, Amuitz Garmendia - External Threats, Coordination Failures, and Centralizing Shifts: Comparative Public Opinion Evidence from
External Threats, Coordination Failures, and Centralizing Shifts: Comparative Public Opinion Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic
P9-5
Presented by: Sandra León, Amuitz Garmendia
Sandra LeónAmuitz Garmendia
Carlos III-Juan March Institute
What can prompt a change in citizens’ support for the territorial formof government?
Individual territorial preferences are generally assumed to be stable over time
and mostly driven by identity or ideology. Yet this article argues that preferences
may change when citizens are exposed to an extraordinary shock and central and subcentral
governments fail to coordinate in response to it. We test this argument using a series of online
survey experiments in a comparative sample of 12 countries at different times of the COVID-19
pandemic. The analyses show that exposure to unsuccessful intergovernmental coordination
prompts a centralizing shift in individuals’ preferences for authority distribution. This effect
survives over time as long as the threat continues to be salient. A second analysis exhibits the
same results for Spain, a least case scenario due to its ongoing centrifugal pressures, where
respondents’ pre-treatment territorial preferences and partisan identification intervene as
significant moderators.