15:00 - 16:40
P9
Room:
Room: North Hall
Panel Session 9
Thomas Plümper, Eric Neumayer - Does ‘Data Fudging’ Explain the Autocratic Advantage? Evidence from the Gap between Official Covid-19 Mortality and Excess Mortality
Carl Henrik Knutsen, Palina Kolvani - Fighting the Disease or Manipulating the data? Democracy, State Capacity, and the Covid-19 Pandemic
Amir Freund, Yael Shomer - National Leaders’ Gender effect on European Countries Performance during the COVID-19 Crisis
Jonas Schmid, Jacob Nyrup - Crises for old men: How disasters, pandemics, and recessions alter government composition.
Sandra León, Amuitz Garmendia - External Threats, Coordination Failures, and Centralizing Shifts: Comparative Public Opinion Evidence from
Crises for old men: How disasters, pandemics, and recessions alter government composition.
P9-4
Presented by: Jonas Schmid, Jacob Nyrup
Jonas Schmid 1Jacob Nyrup 1, 2
1 University of Oslo
2 University of Oxford
What happens to the minister in charge of a specific domain, when they face an acute crisis within their area of responsibility? We explore this focusing on three types of crises, namely economic crises (ministers of finance and economy), pandemics (minister of health), and natural catastrophes (minister of interior). Using the expanded WhoGov-dataset, which contains data up to 2021 and new variables on education and previous occupation, we show that the responsible minister is more likely to be replaced, particularly when their country is faring badly, and that the incoming minister is older, more likely to be male, and has more technocratic expertise within their subject area. We argue that leaders do so because they want to signal competence and alertness when facing a crisis. However, we also show that this is more likely in cases where the leader can be held accountable by the broader population, such as in democratic countries; particularly when there is an upcoming election