15:00 - 16:40
PS9
Room:
Room: South Hall 2A
Panel Session 9
Ekrem Baser - Et Tu, Brute? Reputations, FDI, and Contract Breach
Robert Huber - It's Trade, Stupid! How Changes in Subnational Trade Competitiveness Matter for Incumbents' Vote Shares
Nikitas Konstantinidis - Local Ownership of IMF Conditionality Programs: Conceptualization, Measurement, and Validation
 
It's Trade, Stupid! How Changes in Subnational Trade Competitiveness Matter for Incumbents' Vote Shares
PS9-2
Presented by: Robert Huber
Andreas DürRobert HuberYannick Stiller
University of Salzburg
The economic voting literature suggests that voters reward incumbents with re-election when the country prospers economically, whereas they fail to re-elect them when the economic situation of the country worsens. This literature has mainly focused on domestic economic indicators, such as inflation or unemployment, and mainly looked at changes in the economic situation of the country as a whole. Using a novel dataset that measures subnational trade competitiveness in more than 30 countries, we consider how the international economy matters for vote choice and also leverage within-country variation in economic fortunes. We find support for two expectations: decreases in subnational trade competitiveness lead to lower vote shares for incumbents, and this effect is particularly pronounced in presidential systems. In doing so, the paper not only speaks to the economic voting literature but also to studies on the consequences of globalization and political economy more generally.