Protest Exposure and Electoral Behavior: The Effect of Contention on Electoral Trends
PS9-3
Presented by: Francisca Castro
Can protests influence the trajectory of electoral behavior at a local level? In this paper, we examine one less explored area within the impact of social movements: how the occurrence of protest events can change electoral behavior at a local level. Using data on the 2019 protests of Bolivia and Chile, along with election results at the municipal level of the elections that took place during previous years, and 2020 elections (after the protests), we use difference-in-differences models to assess if (1) protest occurrence influences voter turnout within the municipality they occur, compared to those municipalities that had lower or none protest activity, (2) protest occurrence changes political preferences, compared to previous elections and (3) if episodes of repression of these protests by law enforcement officials mediate the relationship between protest and electoral behavior. This paper contributes to the literature on the effects of social movements by evaluating how the proximity and experience of protest events can affect electoral behavior, aiming for a better understanding of the role of social movements on political outcomes.