15:00 - 16:40
PS9
Room:
Room: South Hall 2B
Panel Session 9
Bernhard Clemm von Hohenberg - The Wolf of Main Street: How Environmental Change Polarizes the Electorate
Michele Griessmair - The Usual Scapegoats—Blame, Anger, and the Rise of (Right-Wing) Populism
Sophia Hunger - Breeding Grounds for Radicalization: How Past Far-Right Mobilization Shapes Radicalization in the Covid-19 Pandemic
The Wolf of Main Street: How Environmental Change Polarizes the Electorate
PS9-1
Presented by: Bernhard Clemm von Hohenberg
Bernhard Clemm von HohenbergAnselm Hager
University of Amsterdam
Western democracies are experiencing profound environmental change brought about by global warming and urbanization. Salient environmental events such as floods and droughts have been shown to increase pro-environmental voting or support for incumbents. In this paper, we posit that environmental change can also spur societal polarization. In particular, environmental change creates clear winners and losers who then turn toward parties that take more extreme positions on the environment. To test this argument, we study the re-emergence of the wolf in Western Central Europe. After having been extinguished by 1900, environmental change has allowed the wolf to make an impressive and unforeseen comeback. Yet, while conservationists applaud the wolf's reemergence, farmers and livestock owners experience significant economic losses. To assess whether the wolf spurs polarization, we collect fine-grained spatial data on wolf attacks in Germany and construct a 30-year municipality-level panel of voting behavior. Using modern difference-in-differences estimators, preliminary results show that wolf attacks help the radical right, while they hurt center-left parties, including the Greens. Turning to mechanisms, we argue that radical parties frame the wolf's reemergence as a symbol of "elite aloofness," which moves voters away from mainstream parties.