Winning votes with greener tweets? Assessing the impact of parties’ environmental salience on citizens’ vote in the 2019 European election.
PS9-2
Presented by: Clara Fauli Molas
The months preceding the 2019 European Parliament election saw an important increase in concern for the environment among EU citizens. As the EU has an extensive environmental acquis and MEPs have competences to work in this domain, it would seem rational for environmentally concerned citizens to use these elections to provide MEPs with a mandate to push for more ambitious environmental legislation.
Nonetheless, it has often been stressed that European elections are largely second-order, which implies that citizens mostly vote to express their opinion on national issues and fail to provide MEPs with a mandate to act on EU policies. This has raised some claims that the EU suffers from a democratic deficit, and it could lead to a weak representation of citizens’ environmental concerns. However, as citizens generally acknowledge the importance of environmental action at EU level, I expect to find a connection between parties’ environmental salience during the campaign and citizens’ vote choice in the 2019 European elections.
I analyse this by first assessing whether parties’ environmental salience improved their electoral performance at aggregate level. Second, I use multi-level models to investigate whether parties’ environmental salience influenced individuals’ party choice. Finding a connection would indicate that European elections are not simply second order and can provide MEPs with a mandate to act on EU policy-issues, such as the environment.
Parties’ environmental salience is computed through a content analysis of tweets that candidates posted during the campaign, using a dictionary approach. Citizens’ data comes from the post-electoral Eurobarometer survey.
Nonetheless, it has often been stressed that European elections are largely second-order, which implies that citizens mostly vote to express their opinion on national issues and fail to provide MEPs with a mandate to act on EU policies. This has raised some claims that the EU suffers from a democratic deficit, and it could lead to a weak representation of citizens’ environmental concerns. However, as citizens generally acknowledge the importance of environmental action at EU level, I expect to find a connection between parties’ environmental salience during the campaign and citizens’ vote choice in the 2019 European elections.
I analyse this by first assessing whether parties’ environmental salience improved their electoral performance at aggregate level. Second, I use multi-level models to investigate whether parties’ environmental salience influenced individuals’ party choice. Finding a connection would indicate that European elections are not simply second order and can provide MEPs with a mandate to act on EU policy-issues, such as the environment.
Parties’ environmental salience is computed through a content analysis of tweets that candidates posted during the campaign, using a dictionary approach. Citizens’ data comes from the post-electoral Eurobarometer survey.