15:00 - 16:40
P9
Room:
Room: North Hall
Panel Session 9
Thomas Plümper, Eric Neumayer - Does ‘Data Fudging’ Explain the Autocratic Advantage? Evidence from the Gap between Official Covid-19 Mortality and Excess Mortality
Carl Henrik Knutsen, Palina Kolvani - Fighting the Disease or Manipulating the data? Democracy, State Capacity, and the Covid-19 Pandemic
Amir Freund, Yael Shomer - National Leaders’ Gender effect on European Countries Performance during the COVID-19 Crisis
Jonas Schmid, Jacob Nyrup - Crises for old men: How disasters, pandemics, and recessions alter government composition.
Sandra León, Amuitz Garmendia - External Threats, Coordination Failures, and Centralizing Shifts: Comparative Public Opinion Evidence from
Does ‘Data Fudging’ Explain the Autocratic Advantage? Evidence from the Gap between Official Covid-19 Mortality and Excess Mortality
P9-1
Presented by: Thomas Plümper, Eric Neumayer
Thomas Plümper 1Eric Neumayer 2
1 Vienna University of Economics Welthandelsplatz 1 1020 Vienna Austria
2 London School of Economics Department of Geography & Environment Houghton St, London WC2A 2AE UK
Governments can underreport Covid-19 mortality to make their performance appear more successful than it is. Autocracies are more likely to ‘fudge’ these data since many autocratic regimes restrict media freedom and thus can prevent domestic media from reporting evidence of undercounting deaths. Autocracies also enjoy greater leverage over reporting health authorities to either fudge data or adopt restrictive definitions of what constitutes Covid-19 mortality. Controlling for factors that partly explain the difference between excess mortality and official Covid-19 mortality, we demonstrate that any apparent ‘autocratic advantage’ in fighting the pandemic is in fact down to ‘autocratic data fudging’. No full liberal democracy is detected as fudging their data, whereas several autocracies and semi-democracies appear to systematically underreport Covid-19 mortality.