A shock-wave or a 'once in generation' effect? The electoral and partisan impact of territorial referendums
PS8-5
Presented by: Toni Rodon, Marc Guinjoan
What are the electoral and partisan consequences of winning or losing a referendum on independence? While part of the literature argues that territorial referendums put in motion a slippery slope towards more (radical) territorial demands and increase the electoral power of regionalist parties, others sustain that territorial referendums on independence are "once in a generation" event and they tend to decrease the salience of territorial politics. Combining existing datasets on territorial referendums, and on the position of regional and state-wide parties on the territorial dimension, as well as information on electoral outcomes, this paper examines the effect of winning or losing a territorial referendum on parties' electoral support and parties' territorial position in the subsequent elections. Using OLS regression models and a series of regression discontinuity design, we aim at contributing to the debate on whether parties, either regional or state-wide parties, moderate or radicalize after the celebration of a territorial referendum.