When populists deliver on their promises: the electoral effects of a large cash transfer program in Poland
PS8-4
Presented by: Katarzyna Sałach
We estimate the effects of the introduction of large cash transfer on the support for the ruling populist party in Poland. We exploit the variation at the municipal level in the annual amount of received cash transfer per capita, and apply a difference-in-differences design to study the electoral effects of the transfer. Our results show that $100 of cash transfer per capita translated into an increase in the vote shares for the ruling party by nearly 2 percentage points. To large extent, these effects were due to recruiting previously non-voting individuals. Without the transfer, all else being equal, the populist party would not remain in power.