13:10 - 14:50
P8
Room:
Room: South Room 223
Panel Session 8
Zoila Ponce de Leon, Gabriele Magni - Immigration and Deportation: Attitudes in Brazil and the United States
Moritz Marbach - Emigration and Populism
Klaudia Wegschaider - Reaching Popular Majorities for Enfranchisement
Mateo Vasquez-Cortes - Interventions that Reduce Exclusionary Attitudes: Personal Narratives about Venezuelan Migrants in Colombia
 
Emigration and Populism
P8-1
Presented by: Moritz Marbach
Rafaela Dancygier 1, Sirus H. Dehdari 2, 5, David D. Laitin 3Moritz Marbach 4, Kåre Vernby 5
1 Princeton University
2 Uppsala University
3 Stanford University
4 Texas A&M
5 Stockholm University
An extensive literature links the rise of populist radical right (PRR) parties to immigration. We argue that another demographic trend is also significant: Emigration. The departure of citizens due to internal and international emigration is a major phenomenon affecting election outcomes via two complementary mechanisms. Emigration alters the composition of electorates but also changes the preferences of remaining voters left behind. Empirically, we establish a positive correlation between PRR vote shares and population loss at the municipality level across Europe. A more fine-grained panel analysis of precincts in Sweden demonstrates that the departure of local citizens raises PRR vote shares in the places left behind and that the Social Democrats are the principal losers from emigration. Elite interviews and newspaper analyses highlight that emigration produces grievances on which populists can capitalize and that established parties do not effectively address. Emigration and the frustrations it generates emerge as important causes of populist success.