Economic Shocks and Fiscal Policy Preferences: Evidence from COVID-19 in Spain
PS7-5
Presented by: Ignacio Jurado, Alexander Kuo
Do negative economic shocks change fiscal policy preferences? We examine this question via the large COVID-19 shock that began in Spring 2020, causing one of the largest acute economic contractions in recent history. While evidence that recessions meaningfully change fiscal preferences is limited, we hypothesize that the health pandemic should have distinct effects, due to the large breadth, uncertainty, and socio-tropic basis of the economic contraction. We hypothesize that sharp aggregate reductions in personal income economic evaluations and optimism should positively affect fiscal support. We use new panel evidence from the hard-hit Spain, surveying individuals prior to the pandemic in August 2019 and the same individuals during the pandemic in May 2020. We find that individuals became more economically pessimistic across many measures, but this did not translate into support for more expansive fiscal policies. A framing experiment indicates that this could be due to aversion to assist lower-income individuals.