The politics of blame-avoidance: evidence from Kosovo
PS7-4
Presented by: Cleo O'Brien-Udry
Credit-claiming for popular policies by political representatives has a negative corollary: blame avoidance. In the domain of foreign aid, a large literature examines the positive effects of foreign aid on the electoral fortunes of local politicians. When aid is unpopular, however, politicians have incentives to disassociate themselves from the aid. These strategies may be constrained by political affiliations, where populist parties may be able to more credibly deny association with unpopular aid, and expectations of future aid from donors, who politicians may be unwilling to alienate despite the electoral costs of unpopular aid. I develop a theory of the conditions under which blame attribution is possible and credible for local politicians. I then examine patterns of blame avoidance and blame-attribution in social media posts by political incumbents, their opponents, and donor aid agencies in Kosovo. I also identify strategic distribution of popular and unpopular aid projects around elections.