Did 3G Make Afghan Insurgents Fight More Effectively? A Disaggregated Study
PS7-1
Presented by: Mehmet Erdem Arslan
Studies on the effects of cell phone usage on conflict focus on presence vs absence of network and yield mixed conclusions, suggesting the effect might depend on other important attributes of each context. The prominent theoretical expectation is cell phones improve collective action. Meanwhile, communication technologies have been advancing exponentially and the nature of telecommunication has changed. I argue that the richness of the information exchange marked by the introduction of 3G and further network technologies leads to an increase in the military effectiveness of insurgent groups. To test this argument, I focus on Afghanistan as a least-likely case. Analysing the effect of introducing 3G network coverage in existing 2G network areas using spatial models and difference-in-differences estimators, I find that the introduction of 3G network leads to an increase in the number of violent events and in the number of multiple-coordinated attacks perpetrated by Afghan insurgents. Results are robust to different sizes of spatial units and do not suffer from reporting bias.