09:30 - 11:10
PS6
Room:
Room: South Room 221
Panel Session 6
Meysam Alizadeh - Crypto Social Media: Platform Decentralization and Its Consequences for User Behavior
Simon Munzert - Global Preferences for Online Hate Speech Regulation
Andrew Guess - Does Social Influence Shape Online Political Expression? Evidence from Large-Scale Data and Experiments
James Cross - Do candidates signal policy or constituency engagement? Examining the use of Twitter as a campaign tool in Ireland using word-embeddings.
William Allen - Do common data visualization design choices change perceptions and attitudes towards refugees? Conjoint experimental evidence during the Afghan crisis
Does Social Influence Shape Online Political Expression? Evidence from Large-Scale Data and Experiments
PS6-3
Presented by: Andrew Guess
Andrew Guess 1, Will Schulz 1, Pablo Barberá 2, Simon Munzert 3, JungHwan Yang 4
1 Princeton University
2 University of Southern California
3 Hertie School
4 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Expressing opinions on social media has become a standard form of participation in the political process, but we know little about the factors that shape it. In this paper, we investigate the role of social context. Decades after the development of the canonical "Spiral of Silence" model, the public sphere has radically shifted toward a networked space mediated by social platforms. We articulate a theory of social influence in social media expression and test it by analyzing unique datasets linking U.S. survey respondents to their public Twitter accounts. To measure political expression, we develop and validate a supervised classifier of tweet-level ideology and apply it to respondents' tweets and the tweets of people they follow. We find that the ideology of Twitter followees' tweets is predictive of respondents' own expressed ideology on Twitter, even after holding constant self-reported ideological predispositions. Finally, we present an experimental study in which we directly manipulate Twitter users’ networks, allowing us to measure over-time changes in opinion expression.