16:50 - 18:30
P5
Room:
Room: South Room 223
Panel Session 5
Natalia Garbiras-Diaz - Valence Shocks and New Entrants: Evidence from local corruption audits in Brazil
Thomas Robinson, Nelson Ruiz - Mind and machine: rooting out corrupt politicians
Felipe Torres - Government Audits of Municipal Corruption and Belief Updating: Experimental Evidence
Valence Shocks and New Entrants: Evidence from local corruption audits in Brazil
P5-1
Presented by: Natalia Garbiras-Diaz
Natalia Garbiras-Diaz
European University Institute
In this paper, I assess how shifts in voters' awareness of valence issues can not only influence voters but also candidates' strategies. While corruption revelations have been shown to influence citizens' voting, less is known about how outsiders take advantage of the heightened opportunity to enter the electoral race. I construct a novel measure of candidate-level anti-corruption leaning using the registered manifestos of more than fifty thousand mayoral candidates running between 2012 and 2020 in Brazil. I show that outsider candidates are, in general, more likely to rely on anti-corruption appeals. Next, I leverage the revelation of corruption in mayoral accounts in Brazilian municipalities, using the yearly randomized audits conducted by the federal government to test whether outsiders are more likely to take advantage of shifts in the salience of corruption. The results indicate that municipalities exposed to this valence shock experienced an increased entrance of outsider candidates. This paper points at how shifts in the salience of corruption can help overcome outsider candidates' barriers to entry; in doing so, it calls for future research on the possible effects on the prospects of democratic backsliding.