15:00 - 16:40
P4
Room:
Room: Terrace 2B
Panel Session 4
Sergi Martínez - Backlash against the US: evidence from WWII in Italy
Daniele Guariso - From Black to Lead . The legacy of Fascism on Political Violence in Italy 1969-1988
Scott Gates - The Effect of Armed Conflict on the Sustainable Development Goals: Applying Synthetic Control Methods
Tore Wig - How War Shapes Science: Empirical evidence from 60 million publications
Simon Hug - The consequences of one-sided violence on inter-ethnic relations
Caroline Brandt, Laura Huber - The Gendered Effects of UN Peacebuilding
Backlash against the US: evidence from WWII in Italy
P4-5
Presented by: Sergi Martínez
Sergi Martínez 1, Giacomo Lemoli 2
1 European University Institute
2 New York University
Extant research uncovered that fascist repression during WWII boosted communist parties' popularity in Europe. Yet, we know little about the consequences of the Allied powers' violence. While military casualties can be associated with conflict dynamics, we argue that Allies' aerial strikes over civilian populations may have pivoted post-war political identities. Social identity theory would predict such relatively indiscriminate episodes of violence to trigger an anti-perpetrator bias that may transcend to conflict sides. Drawing on directional and discounting models of issue voting, one could expect such violence to increase support for communist parties in the aftermath of the conflict. We test this argument by delving into the consequences of WWII in Italy, where the Allies bombed one-fifth of Italian municipalities, being 75% of these aerial strikes executed by the US Army. We resource to data providing the location of Allies' strikes to use a difference-in-differences setup that compares communist parties' vote-shares in municipalities that received US aerial strikes to those which did not experience such a type of violence before and after the conflict. Preliminary findings suggest that American strikes increased support for the Italian Communist Party in elections held after WWII. Such increase is particularly notable when looking at strikes that likely affected civilians instead of purely military targets. We believe these findings relate American operations in the context of the European theatre of WWII to the political dynamics of the Cold War in this region.