Backlash against the US: evidence from WWII in Italy
P4-5
Presented by: Sergi Martínez
Extant research uncovered that fascist repression during WWII boosted communist parties' popularity in Europe. Yet, we know little about the consequences of the Allied powers' violence. While military casualties can be associated with conflict dynamics, we argue that Allies' aerial strikes over civilian populations may have pivoted post-war political identities. Social identity theory would predict such relatively indiscriminate episodes of violence to trigger an anti-perpetrator bias that may transcend to conflict sides. Drawing on directional and discounting models of issue voting, one could expect such violence to increase support for communist parties in the aftermath of the conflict. We test this argument by delving into the consequences of WWII in Italy, where the Allies bombed one-fifth of Italian municipalities, being 75% of these aerial strikes executed by the US Army. We resource to data providing the location of Allies' strikes to use a difference-in-differences setup that compares communist parties' vote-shares in municipalities that received US aerial strikes to those which did not experience such a type of violence before and after the conflict. Preliminary findings suggest that American strikes increased support for the Italian Communist Party in elections held after WWII. Such increase is particularly notable when looking at strikes that likely affected civilians instead of purely military targets. We believe these findings relate American operations in the context of the European theatre of WWII to the political dynamics of the Cold War in this region.