Immigration and Nationalism in the Long Run: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
P4-4
Presented by: Valentin Lang
Empirical research documents strong links between immigration waves and far-right voting, but also points to important heterogeneities in this relationship. We examine whether past experience with immigration shapes voter reactions to current immigration waves. We leverage a natural experiment from Germany, where a short-term and demonstrably arbitrary drawing of occupation zones created a discontinuous distribution of expellees after World War II. Combining historical migration and election data for a 1949-2021 panel at the municipality level, we exploit these differences in a spatial fuzzy regression discontinuity design. Our results show a substantially weaker political backlash against current immigration in municipalities that received more expellees in the past. This effect persists for at least 70 years. We also provide evidence for a persistent positive economic effect of immigration. Our results highlight the importance of historical exposure to immigration for explaining heterogeneities in contemporary political reactions to immigration.