15:00 - 16:40
P4
Room:
Room: South Room 222
Panel Session 4
Laurence Go - Absence makes the vote grow farther: Emigrant voting patterns across 105 homeland elections
Miranda Simon, Cassilde Schwartz - Start-Up or Set Out: Experimental Evidence on Entrepreneurship and Migration Decisions
Valentin Lang - Immigration and Nationalism in the Long Run: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
Daniel Karell, Rabia Malik - New Knowledge and Migration: Evidence from a Digital Field Experiment in Pakistan
Alessandra Stampi-Bombelli - The Dynamics of Ethnic Hierarchies: Evidence from the Age of Mass Migration
Immigration and Nationalism in the Long Run: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
P4-4
Presented by: Valentin Lang
Valentin Lang 1, Stephan Schneider 2
1 University of Mannheim
2 ETH Zurich
Empirical research documents strong links between immigration waves and far-right voting, but also points to important heterogeneities in this relationship. We examine whether past experience with immigration shapes voter reactions to current immigration waves. We leverage a natural experiment from Germany, where a short-term and demonstrably arbitrary drawing of occupation zones created a discontinuous distribution of expellees after World War II. Combining historical migration and election data for a 1949-2021 panel at the municipality level, we exploit these differences in a spatial fuzzy regression discontinuity design. Our results show a substantially weaker political backlash against current immigration in municipalities that received more expellees in the past. This effect persists for at least 70 years. We also provide evidence for a persistent positive economic effect of immigration. Our results highlight the importance of historical exposure to immigration for explaining heterogeneities in contemporary political reactions to immigration.