15:00 - 16:40
P4
Room: Terrace 2B
Panel Session 4
Sergi Martínez - Backlash against the US: evidence from WWII in Italy
Daniele Guariso - From Black to Lead . The legacy of Fascism on Political Violence in Italy 1969-1988
Scott Gates - The Effect of Armed Conflict on the Sustainable Development Goals: Applying Synthetic Control Methods
Tore Wig - How War Shapes Science: Empirical evidence from 60 million publications
Simon Hug - The consequences of one-sided violence on inter-ethnic relations
Caroline Brandt, Laura Huber - The Gendered Effects of UN Peacebuilding
From Black to Lead . The legacy of Fascism on Political Violence in Italy 1969-1988
P4-04
Presented by: Daniele Guariso
Stefano Costalli 1, Daniele Guariso 2, Patricia Justino 3, Andrea Ruggeri 4
1 University of Florence
2 The Alan Turing Institute
3 United Nations University
4 University of Oxford
Did the fascist experience in Italy affect political violence during the first years of the democratic republic? And can the local experience of the Fascist regime explain variation of violent events during the so-called Years of Lead (1969-1988) within Italy? Violent and dictatorial regimes could have long-lasting effects on the politics and repertoires of conflict in country. Even after several years of their collapse, however, we still need to understand how these legacies can affect patterns of political violence. We have created an original dataset that covers the violent political events at subnational level in Italy between 1969 and 1988. In our preliminary analyses of Italian provinces using count model regressions, we find that the membership of the fascist party in 1921 – hence before the institutionalization of the fascist regime - predicts the provincial number of political violence events more than forty years later. And especially neofascist violence during the Years of Lead.