11:20 - 13:00
P2
Room:
Room: South Hall 2A
Panel Session 2
Anders Woller - Personal experience shapes public sector attitudes - Evidence from discontinuities in Danish primary school enrolment
Krisztina Szabo - Proffering material goods in return for electoral support: The Effect of the Hungarian Village Programme on Vote Share in Hungary
Pedro Riera - MEASURING PARTISAN BIAS IN ELECTORAL SYSTEMS WITH MULTI-MEMBER DISTRICTS
Zuheir Desai, Anderson Frey, Scott Tyson - Polarization in the Time of COVID-19
Martin Strobl - School Performance and Retrospective Voting: Evidence from Local Elections in Denmark
Polarization in the Time of COVID-19
P2-4
Presented by: Zuheir Desai, Anderson Frey, Scott Tyson
Zuheir Desai 1Anderson Frey 2Scott Tyson 2
1 IE University
2 University of Rochester
The novel coronavirus is an unprecedented social and political challenge and has potentially created new dimensions of political conflict in many (if not most) countries. One key consequence of the pandemic is that many countries have seen an increase in the salience of competent governance. To explore the impact of COVID-19 on electoral politics, we present a theoretical framework where politicians compete over ideological platforms but can be distinguished by their competence. Our model features both uncertainty about the location of the representative voter and valence uncertainty. We first show that absent direct concerns about competence, political polarization is positively related to ideological uncertainty. An increased salience of competence for voters (brought on by a social crisis like COVID-19) leads to greater ideological polarization among politicians, and this increase is concentrated in districts with low ideological uncertainty. We examine the implications of our theory using data from Brazilian municipality elections. Using a difference-in-differences methodology we find that COVID-19 leads to increased political polarization in Brazil, but that this increase is concentrated in areas where the partisan leaning of voters is relatively certain.