11:20 - 13:00
P2
Room:
Room: South Room 224
Panel Session 2
Viktoria Jansesberger - Extreme Weather Events and Political Inequality in Urban Areas: Hotbeds for Anti-Government Protests?
Vally Koubi - Climate induced migration and urban conflict
Tim Wegenast, Cécile Richetta - Access Denied: Land Enclosures and Pastoralists’ Livelihood Conflicts
Climate induced migration and urban conflict
P2-2
Presented by: Vally Koubi
Quynh Nguyen 1, Gabriele Spilker 2Vally Koubi 3, Tobias Böhmelt 4
1 Australian National University
2 University of Konstanz
3 ETH Zurich
4 University of Essex
The complex link between climate, migration, and conflict, has received a lot of scholarly attention, but few studies have explicitly looked at the potential of environmental/climate migration for urban conflict. In this paper, we examine the effects of climate-induced rural-to-urban migration on urban social unrest. We argue that rural-to-urban migration driven by adverse rural environmental conditions, by straining the provision of public services in urban areas, increasing the competition for jobs, and heightening competition over scarce urban land increases the chances of urban social unrest. Relying on newly collected survey data of individuals who have migrated to urban settings in Kenya and Vietnam after experiencing climate related extreme events, such as droughts and floods in their original rural locations, we first identify and geocode the survey respondents’ present and past locations. We then combine remote sensing of the spatial and temporal change of land use and land cover (e.g., cultivation, urban expansion, and landscape changes) with climate (e.g., temperature and precipitation), biophysical (e.g., water availability), demographic and socio-economic data (i.e., population density and economic development proxied with nighttime light intensity) and conflict events data to test the climate migration-urban conflict link. Our study contributes insights relevant to the broader debates about possible security implications of climate change, migration, and urbanization.