09:30 - 11:10
P1
Room: Club D
Panel Session 1
Jochen Rehmert - 'All Politics is Local': Local Incentives for Incumbent Reselection in a Closed-List Environment
Sergio Ascencio - Gubernatorial Influence in Candidate Selection: Evidence from Legislative Primaries in Mexico
Noam Lupu - Are Working-Class Candidates Bad Fundraisers?
Tilko Swalve, Arndt Leininger - All Politics is Local: The Influence of Regional Name Recognition on Candidate Support
Denis Cohen - The housing crisis on social media: Local rental markets and MPs'
The housing crisis on social media: Local rental markets and MPs' attention to housing policy on Twitter
P1-05
Presented by: Denis Cohen
Denis Cohen, Tim Allinger, Andreas Küpfer
University of Mannheim
Whereas intra-party heterogeneity is often framed as a strategic behavior of individual MPs in violation of party unity, it may also be viewed as a synergic effort of individual MPs and national parties to strategically diversify parties’ appeal in order to cater for geographic preference heterogeneity in national electorates. In this paper, we study this view in the context of the politicization of rent and housing policy during two election campaigns and one legislative period in Germany -- a country with pronounced geographic heterogeneity in housing markets and a mixed-member PR system in which most MPs compete for personal votes in electoral districts. We use monthly time-series cross-sectional data based on original salience estimates from a binary classification of housing-related statements in MPs' tweets along with aggregations of rent prices at the level of electoral districts from millions of georeferenced housing ads to study the nexus between MPs’ attention to housing policy and local rental markets across time and space. Next to the baseline hypothesis that high prices of rental objects incentivize MPs' attention on housing policy, we test several important scope conditions. Specifically, we hypothesize that the effect will be more pronounced in districts where constituents share widespread grievances over a saturated rental market (i.e., low ownership rates and low intra-district heterogeneity in local rents), among left-wing MPs who are more likely to benefit electorally from the politicization of surging rental costs, and during election campaigns when MPs are most dependent on the approval of their local constituents.