INTRODUCTION
In the UK, impact-based weather warnings are issued by the Met Office. Unlike earlier phenomena-based warnings, which were issued on the basis of meteorological conditions alone (e.g. forecast wind speed), impact based warnings are based on the risk that these conditions pose for specific regions. However, to date there has been little published research examining how members of the UK public understand and respond to these warnings. In this study we use the context of the February 2017 Storm Doris wind warnings to explore 1) understanding of impact-based warnings; and 2) the factors associated with recalled and anticipated response to impact-based warnings.
METHOD
In April 2017 we conducted a survey with UK residents (n=517) whose region received warnings for strong winds during Storm Doris. The survey measured understanding of impact-based warnings, recalled response, anticipated future response, warning perception (likelihood, severity, concerningness, trustworthiness), trust in the Met Office, weather experience, and weather attitude (vulnerability, interest and disengagement subscales).
RESULTS
A descriptive analysis of responses to questions assessing understanding of impact based warnings, indicated that while a majority of respondents understood that warnings reflected potential consequences for one’s local area (58% correctly agreed “Warnings for strong wind are based on what the impacts of strong winds could be for a particular area”), there was lower understanding that warnings are calibrated to take into account regional differences (just 27% correctly disagreed “The conditions needed to trigger a severe weather warning are the same across the whole UK”). Binary logistic regression indicated that recalled response to the Storm Doris warnings was associated with weather experience. Anticipated response to future warnings was associated with weather experience, trust, perceived severity, perceived concerningness, and interest in weather.
CONCLUSIONS
We conclude that while the UK public generally understand that Met Office weather warnings to be based on the consequences of severe weather, there is confusion as to whether the conditions needed to trigger warnings differs between regions. Our findings also highlight the importance of experience, trust, and engagement with weather information for weather risk communication.