Different types of disasters, crises and threats may cause large scale societal disruption. In order to prevent them or minimize destabilizing effects when they occur, the Dutch government applies an All Hazard National Safety and Security Strategy. The National Risk Assessment (NRA) is part of this strategy. The results of the NRA are presented in the National Risk Profile. It provides an all hazard overview of the risks related to various disasters, crises and threats that may affect Dutch society. It also describes relevant autonomous or long term developments, like climate change. Finally, a horizon scanning exercise will be performed every year in order to identify new threats, potential risks and relevant developments.
Potential risks, threats and hazards varying from natural disasters , communicable diseases, major accidents and the disruption of critical infrastructure to extremism, terrorism, cyber threats, geopolitical threats and financial-economic threats, are analysed using a methodology called the National Risk Assessment (NRA). In this methodology threats and hazards are assessed in terms of their likelihood and impact, using a uniform scoring method rendering them comparable. The impact criteria reflect all the essential interests of our society: health, safety and security, ecology, economy, culture, critical infrastructure and social and political stability.
The different themes have been analysed, based on desk studies and scenario analyses as well as consultation meetings with experts from the fields of science, practice and policy. The analyses have been conducted by the National Network of Safety and Security Analysts.
In order to acquire netter insights related to long term developments, the relevant ecological, societal, political, economic and technological developments have been discussed in the risk profile as well. Based on these developments, a horizon scanning exercise is performed in order to identify new threats or deviations from existing developments. The results of this scan are input for the next NRA and the decision making process.
In the presentation the outcomes featured in the risk profile, the NRA methodology as well as the approach for the horizon scanning exercise will be presented and discussed.