Changing lifestyle-associated risk factors, such as increased cholesterol levels, is a core preventive measure for chronic diseases. A motivational precondition for lifestyle change is the perception of a personal risk. Since risk perceptions have mostly been studied cross-sectionally, the present study has a longitudinal design. Within the framework of the Cue Adaptive Reasoning Account (CARA) we examined trajectories of risk perception over a period of six months.
As part of the Konstanz Life-Study blood samples of all participants (N=1193) were collected at T1. Participants were asked to report their expectations regarding their cholesterol levels (positive/negative expectation). Six weeks later (T2), participants received a standardised written risk feedback (positive/negative feedback). Additionally, risk perception was assessed at T2 as well as one month (T3) and six months (T4) later.
The analysis of the 2x2x3 design (expectancy x risk feedback x measurement point of risk perception) revealed that participants with expectancy-congruent risk feedback had a stable risk perception over all measurement points. Interestingly, participants with expectancy-incongruent feedback showed a differential trajectory. Participants who received an unexpected negative feedback, as well as those who received an unexpected positive feedback, showed a similar risk perception at T2 and T3. However, at T4 participants with an unexpected negative risk feedback showed a significant decline in risk perception compared with those with an unexpected positive feedback.
In accordance with the CARA-approach, these findings substantiate the importance of expectancies in the context of processing risk information and show that habituational effects might emerge only with a delay after a critical event. Longitudinal designs are prequisite to adequately observing these dynamics.