16:20 - 18:00
Room: G1350
Oral session
Chair/s:
Jorge Gonzalez Ortega
Analysing the Impact of Progress Payment Delays on Construction Projects Cashflow by Using Monte Carlo Simulation
Özlem TÜZ EBESEK 1, Şafak EBESEK 1
1 Mersin University, Mersin
2 İstanbul Technical University, İstanbul, Turkey

Due to the nature, construction is an industry with high uncertainty and risk. Construction industry carries high leverage ratios. Firms with low equities work in big projects through progress payment system, but in this case, even a small negative in the planned cash flows constitute a major risk for the company. The use of leverage, with a small investment to achieve profit targets large-scale, high-profit, but also brings a high risk with it. Investors may lose all or the portion of the money.

In this study, monitoring and measuring of the leverage ratio because of the extra displacement probability in cash inflows of construction projects which uses high leverage and low cash to do business in the sector is targeted. Construction projects characteristics will be compiled and Matlab / Excel will be used for calculation and visualization of results.

Cash need because of drifting the cash inflows may be seen due to the risk sensitive model. Work should be done in the early stages of the project with little capital but in the later stages, rapidly growing capital need arises.

The values obtained from the risk sensitive model may be used to supply the capital held in the right time by anticipating the risks because of the delay in cashflow of construction projects which uses high leverage ratio.


Reference:
S15-04
Session:
Theoretical advancements in risk studies, part I
Presenter/s:
Özlem TÜZ EBESEK
Presentation type:
Oral presentation
Room:
G1350
Chair/s:
Jorge Gonzalez Ortega
Date:
Monday, 18 June
Time:
16:20 - 18:00
Session times:
16:20 - 18:00