Improving Forecasts of Turnover Indices Using Tax Data
We use tax data on turnover to improve forecasts of turnover indices for the use in Quarterly National Accounts. The current quarter of turnover indices is not available in time for the use in QNA, so it has to be forecasted. In times of economic crises forecasts that are only based on past data perform poorly. To be able to account for the break in time series caused by the COVID-19 pandemic we use data from advance tax returns. This lowers revisions in QNA.