The Persistent Effect of State Political Violence on Support for Autocracy: Evidence from Spatial Regression Discontinuity Design on Fascist Italy
What is the persistent effect of state political repression on support for autocracy? In this paper, I trace the permanent effects of repression against civilians on their support for autocracy. A growing literature shows that autocracies repress citizens and social organizations by psychological, digital or physical means imposing legitimacy and stability. Drawing on evidence from an historical case in Turin, Italy, I show how state political violence against civilians results in persistent decrease of support for autocracy, even when a regime change takes place. I first gather qualitative new data by reviewing over 200,000 newspaper articles on protests and repressions in Turin between 1867 and 1922. Second, I implement automated webscraping approach on state archives to over 89,000 previously classified individual-level data on National Fascist Party members. To empirically test this claim, I implement spatial regression discontinuity designs and show that areas exposed to state political repression during the monarchy era did not support fascism. The findings show that state political violence causes negative support for authoritarian regimes, providing a permanent challenge to the regime, hindering their legitimacy.