09:30 - 11:00
Thu-PS1
Chair/s:
marco Nieddu
Room: Floor 2, Auditorium 3
Marco Niedu - It’s a Sure Win! Experimental Evidence on Overconfidence in Betting Behavior
Abigail Hurwitz - Private information and risk preferences in the annuity market: Evidence from Sweden
Pavneet Singh - Do Social Norms reduce biases in risky decisions?
Andrea Byfuglien - Does climate adaptation trump mitigation? The role of risk perceptions among Norwegian farmers
It’s a Sure Win! Experimental Evidence on Overconfidence in Betting Behavior
Martin Chegere 1, Paolo Falco 2, Marco Nieddu 3, Lorenzo Pandolfi 4, Mattea Stein 4
1 School of Economics, University of Dar es Salaam
2 Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen
3 Department of Economics, University of Cagliari
4 Department of Economics, University of Naples, Federico II, and CSEF
We conduct an experiment with regular sports bettors to investigate how they value their bets and form expectations about winning probabilities. We find that subjects assign higher certainty equivalents and winning probabilities to sports bets than to neutral urn-and-balls lotteries with identical odds, even though, in fact, they are not more likely to win. The results point to bettors being overconfident in their ability to predict sports outcomes. Coupled with data on betting frequency and motives, our experimental evidence indicates that, by leveraging gamblers' overconfidence, sports betting exacerbates their financial losses.