16:00 - 17:30
Panel Session 2
Room: Zoom
Moderator/s:
Moritz Marbach
Understanding and Reducing Biases in Elite Beliefs About the Electorate
Miguel Pereira
Washington University in Saint Louis, Saint Louis

To be responsive, politicians have to rely on beliefs about public will. Previous research suggests that perceptions of public opinion are often distorted. However, it remains unclear (1) why reelection-seeking elites mis-estimate constituent preferences, and (2) how to overcome distorted beliefs. I argue that elite misperceptions result from differential exposure and social projection. First, inequalities in political voice generate distorted images of the electorate by making some voter signals more accessible than others. Second, representatives systematically overestimate support for positions they endorse. I find evidence in line with these arguments in a panel of Swedish MPs covering two decades of elite beliefs. Additionally, a novel experiment with Swiss elected officials reveals how promoting a more balanced exposure to voters and avoiding social projection reduces misperceptions. The results contribute to our understanding of democratic representation and uncover ways to bolster the links between voters and their representatives.


Reference:
Th-P2-02
Session:
Political Methodology
Presenter/s:
Miguel Pereira
Topic:
EU Politics
Presentation type:
Oral presentation
Room:
Zoom
Moderator/s:
Moritz Marbach
Date:
Thursday, 18 June
Time:
16:15 - 16:30
Session times:
16:00 - 17:30

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